从替代到赋能：人工智能解困劳动力低端锁定

Abstract

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets by changing job tasks, skill requirements and occupational mobility opportunities. This paper develops a task-training-skill search and matching framework and a multi-level occupational mobility model to examine whether and how artificial intelligence helps alleviate low-end occupational lock-in among workers. The theoretical model reveals the intrinsic driving force of artificial intelligence in promoting upward occupational mobility and job matching through job structure upgrading and intelligent skill improvement. Empirically, using individual-level data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2022 matched with regional artificial intelligence indicators, the paper finds that a 1% increase in the level of artificial intelligence raises the probability of occupational promotion by 0.785%. This positive effect is more pronounced among low-skilled workers and is significant across groups with voluntary original occupational development, voluntary job changes, and involuntary job changes. Further analysis shows that artificial intelligence significantly reduces the substitution effect of occupational downgrading risk and enhances the empowerment effect of long-term career advancement. The paper provides a theoretical framework for solving the low-end lock-in dilemma and micro-level empirical evidence for strengthening the employment creation effect of artificial intelligence during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.