政策沟通、公众关注与经济不确定性——基于文本大数据的指数构建与实证研究

Abstract

Public expectations are an important factor affecting the effectiveness of economic policy, and optimizing expectation management through policy communication is of great significance for promoting the steady and long-term development of the macroeconomy. This paper uses text analysis methods to measure policy indices, and discusses the impact and mechanism of monetary policy communication and fiscal policy communication on macroeconomic uncertainty at different time points from the perspective of expectation guidance. The research shows that continuous and precise monetary policy and fiscal policy communication can effectively reduce economic uncertainty caused by external negative shocks, and increasing communication frequency is of great significance for strengthening communication effects. Mechanism test results show that the policy tool implementation mechanism and the public policy attention mechanism are important channels of policy communication, that is, policy communication stabilizes economic growth by strengthening the implementation effect of policy tools and increasing public attention to policies. In addition, improving the policy communication mechanism and paying attention to the synergistic interaction of policy combinations are conducive to achieving stable economic growth.