中国家庭经济风险测度、国际比较与缓冲机制

Abstract

Based on data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this study measures and analyzes the status, trends and group heterogeneity of household economic risks along three dimensions: Financial vulnerability, poverty vulnerability and insolvency risk. The results show that although the proportion of households experiencing poverty vulnerability has declined significantly, the share of households facing financial vulnerability and insolvency risk has risen. Moreover, rural households, northern households and elderly households are exposed to higher economic risks. Applying micro-survey data from other countries, this paper finds that while China's household economic risks are not particularly high in cross-country comparison, their increasing trend over time calls for attention. Furthermore, this study empirically reveals that exogenous shocks significantly increase financial vulnerability, poverty vulnerability and insolvency risk, while social networks, social security, financial services and human capital play important roles in alleviating the economic risks. Our study provides valuable insights for mitigating household economic risks and promoting stable and healthy development of household economies.