先进设备进口与人力资本积累：来自进口贴息的证据

Abstract

Human capital stands as a fundamental pillar of high-quality economic development. This study investigates the impact of advanced equipment imports on human capital accumulation by exploiting China's 2008 import subsidy policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Drawing on variations in pre-policy import structures across cities (2005-2007), the study constructs an indicator of advanced equipment import exposure, which is combined with multi-wave data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Using a cohort-based difference-in-differences (DID) framework, the analysis assesses the policy's effects on individuals' educational attainment. The findings reveal that exposure to the policy significantly increases the probability of school-age adolescents in affected cities pursuing high school education. These results withstand an extensive series of robustness tests. The analysis subsequently investigates the mechanisms through a dual-level analytical framework. At the city level, the import subsidy policy markedly enhances manufacturing sector technological intensity, stimulates industrial structural transformation evidenced by a notable rise in service sector employment, and elevates skill premiums. At the individual level, these labour market transformations substantially raise the probability of adolescents pursuing higher education. Further analysis explores the policy's long-term effects and heterogeneous impacts. Advanced equipment imports not only elevate educational attainment but also enhance labour market outcomes. Most significantly, the policy exerts particularly pronounced effects on disadvantaged populations.