外部需求冲击与中国企业的第三地对外直接投资——基于反倾销调查的证据

Abstract

China's exports face increasing external demand shocks. Investigating how heterogeneous firms respond to such external risks is crucial for the high-quality development of China's exports and outward foreign investment. This paper extends the existing theoretical model and employs a staggered DID method to examine the motive of Chinese exporting firms to circumvent external demand shocks through third-party OFDI. The study finds that negative demand shocks from destination markets substantially increase the probability of Chinese firms establishing productive OFDI in third locations. The third-party investment strategy indeed helps Chinese firms mitigate demand shocks in destination markets to some extent. Processing trade enterprises with large export volumes and low unit prices are more dependent on destination markets than other firms and have greater incentives to switch from exporting to productive investment in third locations. After firms make third-party investments, their market service channels increase and scope expands, reducing their commercial service investment in destination markets. This research helps guide Chinese firms in responding to external demand shocks and provides solutions, with significant practical and policy value.