大国战略竞争下的新质人才需求：来自大模型数据挖掘的证据

Abstract

Human capital serves as the primary driver in developing new quality productive forces. Drawing on micro-level data from Chinese A-share listed enterprises and online job vacancy datasets spanning 2014-2022, this study employs two large language models (LLMs) – GPT and SBERT – to classify standardized occupational skill categories in online job postings and quantify enterprise demand for new quality human capital. Building on this foundation, the paper constructs a theoretical model within a task analysis framework, treating U.S. "list-based" sanctions against Chinese enterprises as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, it examines how U.S. sanction shocks influence Chinese enterprises' demand for new quality human capital, as well as the underlying mechanisms, within the context of great power strategic competition. Theoretically, U.S. sanction shocks generate competing effects on Chinese enterprises' demand for new quality human capital: the task allocation effect and factor substitution effect increase demand, while the production scale effect reduces it due to contracted output of final products. Empirically, U.S. sanctions significantly increase overall demand for new quality human capital among affected enterprises. Mechanistically, these shocks operate primarily through positive task allocation and factor substitution channels, though their net impact is partially offset by reduced demand stemming from production scale contraction. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that U.S. sanction shocks induce Chinese enterprises to significantly increase demand for highly skilled human capital while boosting employment of high-efficiency and high-quality talent – thereby improving talent chain allocation through new quality human capital demand effects. Moreover, the policy effects vary substantially across different U.S. sanction lists: export control and investment restriction measures positively influence Chinese enterprises' human capital demand, whereas sanctions imposing financing constraints exert negative effects. Furthermore, the positive effect of sanction shocks on human capital demand proves particularly pronounced in technology-intensive enterprises and those with higher productivity levels. Beyond enterprise-level effects, extended analysis demonstrates that U.S. sanction shocks generate significant backward supply chain spillover effects, elevating demand for new quality human capital among upstream suppliers to sanctioned Chinese enterprises. These shocks also substantially reshape labour skill demand and task composition patterns – particularly through increased employment of digitally-skilled talent. Preliminary estimates derived from the empirical results suggest that these sanction shocks additionally produce measurable economic effects on new quality job creation across China's broader labour market. This study provides theoretical and empirical evidence on structural shifts in Chinese enterprises' new quality human capital demand amid geopolitical upheaval, offering important policy insights for cultivating new quality productive forces.