社保缴费基数限额下调的稳就业与促投资效应研究——来自社平工资统计口径调整的证据

Abstract

Improving the factor price mechanism is vital for unleashing market potential. Social insurance contribution base floor raises firms' labor costs for low-wage workers, thereby distorting the price of labor. In 2019, the central government mandated that social insurance contribution base limits be calculated using the average wage of persons employed in urban units, which led to downward adjustments in some regions. Exploiting this exogenous shock, we find that the policy reduced per capita labor costs by 2.38% and increased employment by 3.86%, implying a labor demand elasticity of 1.62. The policy stabilizes employment primarily by reducing labor costs and easing financing constraints. The effect is more pronounced among firms that are smaller, have lower average wages, and exhibit higher levels of social insurance compliance. After the downward adjustment of contribution base limits, both the probability and intensity of corporate investment rose significantly. Both the investment-promoting and employment-stabilizing effects are driven by the reduction in the contribution base floor. Notably, these adjustments do not reduce social insurance revenue but enhance fiscal subsidy capacity. Our findings suggest that reforming social insurance contribution base limits not only helps improve the social insurance system, but also helps optimize the labor factor price mechanism and thereby promote market vitality.